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EU-UK reset summit

The UK–EU Summit held in London on 19 May 2025 marked the most significant shift in UK–EU relations since the signing of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). In advance of the Summit, we published our top five predictions. Here's how they compared to the outcome: 

1. Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Agreement

Prediction: Would likely headline the Summit, but be limited in impact unless part of a wider package.

Outcome: ✔ Confirmed. A deal was struck to ease agri-food trade and reduce checks across the Channel and the Irish Sea. While modest economically, this is a major political signal of renewed cooperation.

2. Mutual Recognition (UKCA–CE Marking)

Prediction: No deal expected, but tone may shift to enable future progress.

Outcome: ✔ Accurate. No formal agreement was announced, but the Common Understanding commits both sides to explore technical alignment are welcomed—particularly in climate, energy and product standards.

3. Youth Mobility

Prediction: Politically difficult; unlikely to advance.

Outcome: ✔ Confirmed. Talks were opened, but no agreement was reached. Business mobility and a potential UK return to Erasmus+ are now under discussion—areas the Chamber continues to champion. This is positive, but still a long way to go. 

4. Defence Cooperation

Prediction: Major outcome expected, with UK seeking access to EU procurement.

Outcome: ✔ Confirmed and significant. A new EU–UK Security and Defence Partnership was signed. UK access to the €150bn SAFE programme remains subject to further negotiation and budget contributions. This is good news for members in the defence sector operating out of the UK.

5. Tone and Future Trajectory

Prediction: A shift in political tone, not a treaty rewrite.

Outcome: ✔ Confirmed. The Summit emphasised cooperation over confrontation. It launched regular dialogues, new joint working arrangements, and a plan for annual summits—a platform business can build upon. Great news! 

There were some extras in there we didn't predict: 

Electricity Market & Emissions Trading System (ETS):

The UK will begin talks to rejoin the EU electricity market and align ETS mechanisms—going beyond what was forecast. This opens new opportunities in clean energy investment and regulatory coherence.

E-Gate Access for UK Passport Holders:

A practical improvement for business travel, reducing visible friction at EU borders. Just in time for holidays! 

Fishing Rights Extension (to 2038):

A UK concession under pressure from EU coastal states, particularly France. Politically sensitive for the UK government but unlikely to directly impact Chamber members.